Problems come in many forms

Secret Weapon #004

02 April 2025

When you’re trying to figure out the best way to tackle a problem, it often helps to think first about the type of problem you’re dealing with.

One tool I really like for this is the Cynefin framework.¹ I was introduced to this early on in my career, when I was first working on strategy projects in government, and it left a big impression on me. To this day I’m often surprised that more people aren’t familiar with it.

It organises problems into four primary domains:

• Clear. Cause and effect are obvious; categorise the situation and apply best practice. Example: baking a cake. Rewards process.
• Complicated. Cause and effect are knowable but not immediately apparent; analyse the situation carefully to find a solution. Example: coaching a sports team. Rewards expertise.
• Complex. Cause and effect are only apparent with hindsight; focus on spotting and exploiting patterns as they emerge. Example: playing poker. Rewards experimentation.
• Chaotic. Cause and effect are impossible to parse; act on instinct, in the hope of imposing some order on the immediate situation. Example: novel crisis response. Rewards direction.

There’s also a fifth domain – confusion – to capture those times when it’s hard to tell (or there’s disagreement about) which of the domains applies.

You can probably think of times when you saw someone trying in vain to apply standard processes to a complex problem, or burning goodwill behaving as if a complicated situation was chaotic. Try to avoid doing this!

Instead take a moment to identify which domain you’re operating in, and use this insight to select a problem-solving approach and leadership style to match.